Long time readers of this blog know that I am a regular (but not constant) amateur poker player. I have a regular game with a group of friends, anywhere from one table of 6-8 players to occasionally three tables. It’s all about clean, healthy fun, LOW stakes with good friends.
I’m a decent player who wins on occasion. But in a group with lots of good players, it’s easy to have a bad night and get knocked out early. And at the end of every game, no matter how I did, I spend a few minutes deconstructing the decisions that either made or broke my night.
My conclusion is always the same. There’s certainly some luck involved. But we make our own luck, too. And far more often than not, it’s the decisions we make, not random luck, that have the biggest impact on our success.
After our most recent game, I jotted down a few universal truths over Sunday morning coffee. And in retrospect, these truths are about more than just poker. They apply just as much to business and life:
Success is about matching your own strengths and weaknesses with what’s available to everyone. In poker, your cards are uniquely yours, but the community cards are face up for all to use. A hand is only strong or weak based on how yours matches up with what’s already on the table. Same with your business.
Sometimes it’s not clear how strong your hand is. Occasionally you know you can compete with anyone. Occasionally you know it’s time to fold. But most of the time, your strength is relative to what others might be holding. And that’s where the game gets fun. You have to size up your position, then play accordingly. Same with your business.
There’s a wealth of information out there. You just have to look and listen. Poker with friends is noisy and full of laughter. But if you want to do well, don’t be distracted by the surface clutter. Watch the expressions, the subtlety of language, the changes in behavior. The guy next to me with the big stack, has been chatting all night. Now he isn’t. What does that mean? I may not be sure. But I know it means something. Same with your business.
There are moments when you have to go for it, and moments when you have to pull back. Getting those two or three key moments right will make or break your outcome. It depends on the situation: your stack versus theirs, early or late in the game, strong cards or hoping for luck. It’s a constant balancing of variables. Same with your business.
Great decision makers actually take very little risk. When they “go for it,” it’s because the odds are in their favor. When they aren’t, they fold and wait. My friend Colin, a great poker player and a very good assessor of risk, often says, “you win more often thinking like Iceman as opposed to thinking like Maverick.” (A Top Gun reference that film buffs will immediately recognize.)
You can make all the right choices and still not win. And that’s OK. If your process was sound and something simply went against you, that’s real life. Don’t lose sleep over it.
Bottom line: in business, just like at the poker table, success is about balancing what you have in front of you, the variables around you, and the information available, and then making consistently solid decisions. The decision-making process is what you have the most control over. Control it with a disciplined framework, and you’ll enjoy success more often than not.
Good luck, at the tables and in business. Have a great day.
